(One in an occasional series, or when the various candidates prove irksome…)
Nate Silver considers the odds of the GOP field via regression analysis and polling magic. No matter how he slices it, Mitt Romney comes out on top for the GOP nomination in 2012.
Let’s take a moment and look at Romney’s record:
- Venture Capitalist;
- GOP nominee for US Senate v. Ted Kennedy 1994;
- Salvaged, reorganized and successfully managed 2002 Winter Olympics, Salt Lake City, UT;
- One-term Governor of Massachusetts;
- Drafted, passed single payer health plan for MA;
- GOP candidate for US President 2008, 2012.
- Romney is a Mormon, a denomination considered by some Christians (especially Evangelicals) as cultists and/or non-Christian;
- In the 1994 Senate race he affirmed to the Log Cabin Republicans that he’d be better for gay rights than Ted Kennedy would be; and then backtracked in 2002 and 2008;
- he is personally pro-life but believes abortion should be safe and legal; until he doesn’t….
- Drafted,passed single payer health plan for MA;
- See #1.
I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. I have since the time that my mom took that position when she ran in 1970 as a US Senate candidate. I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years, that we should sustain and support it, and I sustain and support that law, and the right of a woman to make that choice, and my personal beliefs, like the personal beliefs of other people, should not be brought into a political campaign.
On January 29, 2007, in a visit to South Carolina, Romney stated, “Over the last multiple years, as you know, I have been effectively pro-choice, I never called myself that as a label but I was effectively pro-choice and that followed a personal experience in my extended family that led to that conclusion.” Romney continued saying every decision he made as governor, “in a very liberal state has been on the side of favoring life, I am firmly pro-life.”
If we are to achieve the goals we share, we must make equality for gays and lesbians a mainstream concern. My opponent cannot do this. I can and will.
Let’s get one thing straight: No matter what Mitt Romney says in his big health care speech tomorrow, it won’t solve the huge political problem he faces with conservatives unless he flatly repudiates the individual mandate at the center of Romneycare.
Finally, there’s the Mormon question…
In 2008, Romney’s religion cost him the Vice-Presidency, and possibly even the Presidential nomination itself. He didn’t have much of a chance at winning that one, but evangelical leaders made it very clear to GOP nominee John McCain that they wouldn’t support Romney as his running mate. Thus we got Sarah Palin.
Fast-forward to 2011: It’s not at all clear that evangelicals continue to hold Romney’s religion against him. They may have learned something about Mormonism in the three years since 2008, or they may have just decided that a Mormon is better than any Democrat…Then again, the sticking point may not be his religion at all. It may all come down to his refudiation of single payer. Or it may come down to his track record of trying to have it both ways on contentious issues near and dear to GOP hearts.
What does Mitt Romney believe? Who knows?
The Bitch’s two favorite headlines on the Mitt Matter: